Insights

According to Wall Street lore, investors should “sell in May and go away”, but June's rally once again reduces the credence of this strategy. Still, the outlook remains uncertain despite improvements in terms of trade policy tensions and ceasefires.

While credit fundamentals and decent demand-supply technicals are supportive, we are wary of trade and geopolitical re-escalation risks. We are therefore inclined to take a more cautious and defensive approach over the near term.

Sharia-compliant bonds, or to give them their official name, “sukuk”, are often dismissed as faith-based instruments with limited appeal outside of Muslim-majority markets. However, this misses the opportunity they present for global fixed income investors seeking diversification, resilience, and sustainability.

In June, New Zealand’s equity market performance largely reflected ongoing weakness in the country’s economy, with defensive stocks acting as the main drivers of performance.

With uncertainty over tariffs, geopolitical disruption and the paths taken by central banks continuing to impact global markets, it may be instructive to look back at the RBNZ’s last monetary policy decision as we try to determine the future direction of interest rates.

This month we assess how Japan losing its place as the world's largest creditor in fact underscores the country's transformation over the years; we also discuss the recent crude oil market disruptions from a Japanese market perspective.

With slowing growth and an ongoing trade war to handle, China appears to be in a crisis management mode. However, the country is at an inflection point where major structural shifts are occurring as it strives to climb up the technological value chain to achieve self-sufficiency via innovation and resourcefulness.

The Federal Reserve has finally thrown its weight behind the long-proposed change in what is known as the Supplementary Liquidity Ratio for banks, ostensibly so that the banks will then be able to buy more government bonds.

The GIC assesses that the probability of slower yet positive growth in the US has increased. The GIC anticipates a narrower growth gap between the US and other developed markets, with selective diversification into European and Chinese equities potentially paying off. The GIC believes that the risk premium offered by Japanese equities is now competitive with that of the US, although trade-related uncertainty is expected to linger.

US exceptionalism has faded from view recently, supporting an exodus from US assets. However, our stance remains that the US is core to our investment thesis, allowing us to remain part of the secular growth trend in technology innovation not found elsewhere in the world.

We continue to believe that Asia's local government bonds are positioned to perform decently, supported by accommodative central banks amid an environment of benign inflation and moderating growth.

The Fed maintained interest rates at its June meeting, signalling a slightly more positive economic outlook. Despite easing of some risks, uncertainties remain elevated, with inflation still a key concern. FOMC members' varied rate projections reflect heightened uncertainty in the economic outlook.

One hundred and fifty-three quarters have passed since the rather “political” Alan Greenspan was appointed the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. According to our Demand Pressure Index, which seeks to provide a better estimate of the output gap in the economy, the economy has been run “hot” with positive demand pressure (i.e. demand exceeded sustainable supply) in ninety-nine of those post 1986 quarters.

New Zealand’s climate-related disclosures regime came into effect for reporting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2023 and the first rounds of annual reports were released in 2024. Now that the second year of reporting is underway, we share some of the benefits and challenges we have found in the reporting process.

The RBNZ's interest rate cut in May was viewed as a hawkish reduction, with the central bank seen moving closer to the point at which it will consider pausing the cycle to observe the benefits the current monetary policy settings can bring to the economy.

Markets, while volatile, have continued to recover, and we are now seeing an easing of trade tensions. However, in these uncertain times, one thing remains clear—uncertainty itself. The situation remains fluid, and against such a background we expect Chinese policy support to stimulate consumption and business activities.

Japanese equities have not been immune to tariff worries. However, it is worth remembering that Japan is playing the long game: the country is undergoing structural reflation driven by factors unlikely to be reversed by market volatility or bad news on US trade.

We discuss how growing calls to reduce Japan's consumption tax rate provide a chance to focus on how consumption can be stimulated, potentially triggering a secular change in spending behaviour; we also assess the recent surge in super-long JGB yields and its possible implications for monetary and fiscal policy.

In this month's Balancing Act we review Q1 corporate earnings, which have been more resilient than expected; from a defensive standpoint we also discuss our cautious view on gold.

Against a more challenging but still benign macroeconomic backdrop, we expect Asian corporate and bank credit fundamentals to stay resilient, aside from a few sectors and specific credits which may be affected by tariff threats or geopolitical dynamics.

With a new economic regime potentially taking shape, we believe that now is an opportune time to consider an active global fixed income approach to navigate what is likely to be a prolonged period of uncertainty.

We can expect more aggressive policy support from Chinese authorities over the next several months for consumption and business activities, prompted by the still uncertain global trade situation. Despite the ongoing volatility and uncertainty surrounding US-China tariff policies, there are encouraging signs that the situation may improve.

Moody's downgrade of the US offers a chance to assess the relationship between the US administration and the bond market and examine the implications of persistent budget deficits, market reactions, trade tensions and policy decisions.

We firmly believe that markets remain inefficient, and the last few months are testament to that. Hence we face today's uncertainty level headed, attentive to where risks lie while also inquisitive about the potential opportunities.

Speculation over the actions of the US administration had a major impact on asset markets throughout the January-March quarter, with volatility dominating towards the end. We trimmed our overweight score in growth assets during the quarter, while we kept our view of defensive assets marginally positive.

The upcoming New Zealand earnings reporting season is set against a backdrop of intricate global economic factors and trade tensions. Amidst the uncertainty, we assess New Zealand's exposure to the global trade tumult, highlighting potential challenges and supportive factors for the country's economy and companies.

In our view, New Zealand’s status as a safe haven during times of turbulence has often exceeded that of other markets. Although the New Zealand market is relatively small, it also offers a high degree of quality, and the country's bond and asset prices rarely see as much volatility as in the rest of the world.

While the “tariff crisis” may have clouded Japan’s economic outlook, the prospects are certainly not opaque as it may look to reduce the role of US exports. Trade tensions have also prompted the Bank of Japan to hold monetary policy steady, but the central bank is still seen to be on course to hike interest rates in the longer term as it takes into account the continuous rise in domestic inflation.

Nature-related risks and opportunities are rising fast on the global investment agenda. Yet for many investors, finding scalable, credible ways to finance biodiversity remains a challenge. Sovereign green bonds may offer one of the most effective channels to direct capital toward nature-positive outcomes—at scale, and with transparency.

One major “plotline” central to the recent series of tariff moves is the tense trade relationship between the US and China. In this issue, we will explore how Chinese bonds have historically offered defensive characteristics and their portfolio roles moving forward.

Understandably much of the popular market commentary has centred around the possible “Repatriation Trade” and in particular is has focussed on possible flows out of the UST by foreign investors. There have also been stories of some selling of US equities and private credit instruments, all of which sound quite alarming given the USA’s hefty net Foreign Liabilities Position and reliance on foreign capital to cover its deficits.

China’s focus on boosting domestic consumption as their top policy priority in 2025 sets a positive trajectory. The ability of individual countries to provide domestic stimulus is going to be crucial in limiting the impact of global growth slowdown brought on by US policy uncertainty.

The Global Investment Committee (GIC) held an extraordinary session to review the macroeconomic and market impact of tariffs announced by the US on 2 April, as well as subsequent actions and market reactions. The GIC’s verdict is that while the US may avoid a recession, risks of slower growth loom large.

The US markets have dominated global portfolio flows, but investors may seek alternative investment destinations if the ongoing change in trade dynamics results in an extended period of elevated US risk premiums. With US tariff policies setting in motion significant fundamental changes, Asia emerges as a potential destination for capital reallocation.

Amid the challenges facing China's property market, work is well under way to restore confidence in the housing sector. It remains an uphill task for both Beijing and the country's property groups, but there are signs of renewed investor interest in the Chinese property bond market as the housing sector's outlook is expected to improve.

Against this more challenging but still benign macroeconomic backdrop, we expect Asian corporate and bank credit fundamentals to stay　resilient, aside from a few sectors and specific credits which may be affected by tariff threats or geopolitical dynamics.

In a key development for New Zealand’s fixed income market, official figures suggest that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has won its fight against inflation. We feel that the victory has come at a cost, however, given the significant impact interest rate rises have had on consumers and businesses.

The "Liberation Day" US tariffs are expected to strongly impact Asia, where most countries run a trade surplus with the US. Although significant uncertainty is likely to linger, our base case is for most of the region's economies to negotiate with the US and thus mitigate much of the impact from the initial announcement. Regarding Asian local government bonds, we retain a positive outlook for several countries that have the capacity to pre-emptively implement monetary and fiscal policy responses. Most Asian corporates and banks also entered 2025 with strong balance sheets and rating buffers, which could cushion them during this period of high volatility.

New Zealand’s equity market struggled in the first three months of 2025 amid global uncertainty due to trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Although the market news flow was quiet in March overall, some notable developments occurred in the area of renewable energy generation.

The US tariff-induced turmoil could slow the pace of the Bank of Japan’s rate hikes, but the cycle of wages and prices, which has made the central bank confident about monetary tightening, is expected to remain intact over the longer term.

The US recently announced a new reciprocal tariff policy. The announcement led to increased stock market volatility globally, reflecting concerns about a potential trade war. There could still be opportunities for those who can navigate market volatility. The US's strategy, perceived as a high-stakes game, has led to uncertainty. The response from surplus-holding nations and global market dynamics will be crucial in shaping the economic landscape.

We discuss the implications of the expansive new tariffs unveiled by the US and explore the effects on markets, consumer sentiment and potential future outcomes from a Japanese market perspective.

As the rest of the world contends with the geopolitical and economic implications of Trump 2.0, ASEAN presents a wealth of long-term investment opportunities, driven by strong fundamentals and supportive policies.

The chart below is by no means perfect in terms of its specific execution; global price indices are few and far between but it serves to make the point that, since the advent of “Globalization” during the early – mid 1990s, goods prices have lagged service sector prices by a considerable margin. Persistently positive demand versus output gaps in the West resulted in equally persistent rates of service sector and non-traded inflation, while North Asia’s output & employment maximizing pricing behaviour contained goods prices for structural reasons.

Despite a retreat from sustainability initiatives in the US, the sustainable bond market, particularly green bonds, remains strong globally due to continued investor demand, attractive bond yields and increasing participation from countries like Japan.

We downgraded our defensive position marginally, while we maintained an overweight to growth assets.

With the US “exceptionalism” narrative fading, we see value in global diversification. We observe potential turning points in Europe and China equities that may serve as opportunities to diversify global portfolios. Volatile market conditions may be the new normal, but opportunities may emerge due to greater differentiation among firms and economies.

We continue to believe that Asia’s local government bonds are positioned to perform well, supported by accommodative central banks amid an environment of benign inflation and moderating growth.

While US equities stumbled in February, Asian ex Japan equities gained modestly, helped by continued positive momentum in Chinese tech stocks. China's tech has been the comeback story so far in 2025 after DeepSeek injected some liveliness into the market.

Vietnam is demonstrating a commitment to improving governance, expanding infrastructure and cultivating a more competitive business environment. These efforts position Vietnam to harness its demographic advantages and capitalise on emerging geopolitical opportunities.

For 30 years, policy factors like falling corporate tax and interest rates were seen to have generated a bulk of corporate profits, reducing stock-selection opportunities. There are indications that this policy-driven earnings era is coming to an end, heralding darker days for the average firm. However, firms skilled at raising profitability in core business areas could benefit, thus creating new opportunities for skilled stock pickers.

We believe that the Official Cash Rate’s projected path to the 3% level, which we consider likely to be the lowest point of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s current easing cycle, may be more noteworthy than the interest rate cut in February.

February was a challenging month for New Zealand’s stock market following a weak corporate earnings season. Looking ahead, however, we remain confident about the market in 2025 and after. A key reason for this is the interest rate cutting cycle by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that is currently underway.

We assess the factors behind the recent surge in Japan's long-term yields and its implications for equities; we also analyse the robustness of corporate earnings amid the structural economic changes taking place.

In March 2024, after the Nikkei Index reached an all-time high, we offered five structural reasons why Japan's economic resurgence was more than just a flash in the pan. Almost a year later, those five reasons remain just as relevant for investors considering an allocation to Japan.

Our focus on franchise and management quality allows us to look forward with optimism, whilst balance sheet quality and valuation discipline provide comfort for when the fireworks start for all the wrong reasons.

The focus in the media and amongst most analysts has centred around tariffs and a possible fiscal tightening in the USA – although we would argue that on a cash basis the latter is already happening quite aggressively. In some cases, it seems that even where the government has notionally incurred expenses, it does not seem to have distributed funds to its suppliers.

For January, we reduced our overweight position in growth while maintaining our overweight position in defensives. With respect to growth assets, Trump's second presidency ushers in a new era of US exceptionalism which has implications on the rest of the global markets.

In January, the Bank of Japan raised short-term interest rates to 0.5%, the highest level seen in 17 years, as it continued with its slow but steady withdrawal of accommodation. As the Japanese economy shows ongoing signals of recovery from decades of stagnation, we assess the impact the return of interest rates could have on the country’s households, firms and government.

The Indian healthcare sector is projected to become one of the top global markets by 2030, driven by demographic changes, rising incomes, and expanding insurance coverage, presenting long-term investment opportunities.

We believe the introduction of DeepSeek may cause a recalibration of capital expenditures. Its introduction has initiated a shift towards a more cost efficient, scalable, and accessible AI landscape.

We see Asian local government bonds being supported by accommodative central banks amid an environment of benign inflation and moderating growth. Within the region, we expect investor appetite for higher carry bonds such as those of Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines to stay firm relative to their regional peers.

The speed at which AI applications are becoming part and parcel of daily life is breathtaking, with DeepSeek's apparent breakthrough merely accelerating an inevitable, fundamental change in the field. We firmly believe these breakthroughs are the key components needed for sustainable, long-term returns.

The New Zealand equity market paused for breath and dipped in January after posting significant gains towards the end of 2024. Some of the market’s decline reflected a dent in enthusiasm for consumer-facing and cyclical stocks. Global market jitters also appeared to have an impact with disruption risk coming to the fore.

Although the arrival of a new year has brought some optimism after a tough 2024, economic activity remains subdued in New Zealand. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may further cut interest rates in 2025 with global uncertainties impacting the country's economy.

This month we discuss signs of improvement in the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s market communication following its recent rate hike; we also focus on Japan's economic resilience amid a flurry of trade-related headlines impacting the markets.

In the 2024 October-December quarter, risk assets largely moved in line with expectations surrounding the US presidential election. We maintained an overweight position on growth assets over the quarter amid indications of resilient economic conditions. Our view of defensives improved with higher yields having made this group of asset classes more attractive.

The Federal Reserve is seemingly following in the footsteps of the Bank of Japan and adopting a strategy of monetary policy gradualism. This measured approach is aimed at balancing rate cuts with inflation expectations and stabilising the economy without triggering price volatility.

We retained our positive view on growth on resilient economic data and dovish monetary policies globally as inflation is now closer to central bank targets worldwide. Our view of defensives improved as higher yields now make the asset class marginally more attractive.

The BOJ increased overnight rates by 25 basis points, raising the Mutan call rate to its highest since 2008. The decision reflects the BOJ's belief that the economy is performing in line with its view, with positive real wage growth and an upgraded near-term inflation outlook. Uncertainty over US tariffs persists, but Japan's need for AI-related technologies may play an indirect role in reducing trade-related risks.

The future of US policy is surrounded by great uncertainty, particularly regarding tariff measures that the US may impose upon its trading partners. We explore options that are available to Japan to safeguard against tariffs the US may decide to implement.

Despite concerns about Donald Trump's impact on emerging markets, historical data shows that during his first term as US president, China, South Korea and Taiwan outperformed the S&P 500 although they are the most trade-sensitive equity markets.

We expect Asian local government bonds to perform well in 2025, supported by accommodative central banks amid an environment of benign inflation and moderating growth. The ongoing global easing cycle is expected to lower global yields, further supporting Asian bond markets.

Following the surprise result of the snap election in October 2024, Japanese politics has entered a very unique phase. We discuss how the fluid political situation could positively impact the Japanese market, which is already feeling the benefits of corporate governance reform, and assess how engagement could play a role in improving shareholder returns in such an environment.

This month we discuss how a rise in delistings reflects efforts to create a more attractive equity market; we also assess ways in which a merger by large automakers in Japan could stimulate reforms beyond the industry.

Despite its small size and geographic location, New Zealand has led the World in a number of fields – physics, Postwar economic theory (Bill Phillips was born in NZ), inflation targeting (amongst the first to make this a statutory target), globalization, and of course in many sports.

With their central banks bringing interest rates down from previously restrictive settings, 2024 has been the year when most of the world’s economic players have finally begun to experience an easing of monetary policy. In each instance, these reflected confidence that inflation, or perhaps more accurately inflation expectations, had reached a desired level, or were at least on a path towards it.

We retain our positive view on growth on resilient economic data and dovish monetary policies globally as inflation starts to ease worldwide. As for defensives, sovereign bond curves are steepening amid the beginning of the global rate-cutting cycle and bonds are gradually becoming more attractive.

The Fed and the BOJ both made interest rate decisions that were in line with market predictions, with the former cutting interest rates and the latter standing pat on policy. However, uncertainty around future policies and potential impacts of U.S. fiscal and trade policy changes have led to market volatility.

Our comprehensive analysis of the Yanagi Model, which provides an example of how sustainability issues have become a key part of corporate governance practices, showed that ESG integration can drive shareholder value. The significant correlations found, especially in social and governance factors, require our attention; moreover, the analysis shows that integrating ESG factors is essential for long-term value creation.

In what has turned out to be an eventful year for interest rates, one of the major factors for New Zealand's bond market in 2024 has been the impact of monetary policy. We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to continue monetary easing in 2025. In addition to monetary policy, the forthcoming Trump presidency will be another key factor for the bond market in the coming year.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand began cutting interest rates late in 2024 and is anticipated to ease further in 2025. The interest rate environment is expected to be a positive factor for the equity market, which has seen the retail and property sectors suffer in particular under higher rates.

Very thoughtfully, my father presented me with a compendium of newspaper front pages covering all 60 of my birthdays. There were two sections, one for a “broadsheet” and one for a “tabloid”. In 1964, the front page of the broadsheet was dominated by an informed discussion about the enacting by a Labour Party Chancellor of a shock 200 b.p. rise in the UK Base Rate in order to stabilize the pound.

We have upgraded our near-term economic outlook for the US and anticipate Japan's "virtuous circle" to remain intact. Predicting the timing of any cyclical market downturn remains challenging. However, we also highlight heightened tail risks associated with policy disappointments in the US going into 2025. We continue to see risks as biased towards the inflationary, and we also foresee expansionary US fiscal policy as ultimately unsustainable.

China has been feeling the pressure with Donald Trump due to return for his second term as US president. However, during Trump's first term China actually outperformed the S&P 500 index, which demonstrates the importance of domestic policies over external pressure.

This month we evaluate factors expected to attract attention in 2025 from a Japanese economy and equity market perspective. And as the government compiles another stimulus package, we discuss how Japan could be about to test the Laffer curve theory, which argues that tax cuts can actually increase overall tax revenue.

Asian local government bonds are positioned to perform well in 2025, supported by accommodative central banks amid an environment of benign inflation and moderating growth. We expect Asian corporate and bank credit fundamentals to stay resilient, aside from a few sectors and specific credits which may be impacted by tariff threats or US policy changes.

In 2025, US economic growth is expected to continue due to fiscal stimulus, despite above-target inflation. Meanwhile, the strong dollar could face disruptions, the Bank of Japan may keep raising interest rates and China is seen balancing domestic stimulus with potential US tariffs. European growth may recover slowly due to US tariff risks, and global central banks' policies will likely diverge to manage these challenges.

Many may expect the incoming Trump administration's transactional approach to be detrimental to the geopolitical and macroeconomic landscapes. However, we believe that Washington's mercantilist stance should not prevent Asian markets from offering attractive absolute returns, as was the case during the 2017-2021 period under Trump's first term.

Asian local government bonds are poised to perform well in 2025 thanks to accommodative policies by central banks amid benign inflation and moderating growth. The global easing cycle is expected to lower global yields, thereby providing additional support to Asian bond markets.

New Zealand's economy is faced with challenges including a weak currency, low productivity growth and slowed immigration. However, there are potential posi'tives, such as declining interest rates and possible gains in longer maturity bonds. Ultimately, recovery will require time and effort, with the central bank playing a crucial role.

As we head into 2025, we have picked three key elements that we believe will have the greatest influence over market behaviour and performance: interest rates, the strength of the New Zealand dollar and geopolitical uncertainty.

Throughout history, equity investors have benefitted from maintaining a long-term view and an optimistic outlook on humanity's ability to prevail in the face of adversity. This might once again be the case, meaning that the biggest risk might be not having exposure to the highest quality earnings streams through a diversified portfolio of global equities.

We believe that a changing political environment could present opportunities across asset classes in 2025, with fixed income in particular poised to benefit as markets adjust to more realistic inflation expectations.

While 2024 was characterised by broad market gains (or “beta” returns) in Singapore, we expect 2025 to be more centred on generating excess returns (or “alpha”). We believe the service economy, represented by financial services and transportation, will continue to contain key sectors which offer high sustainable returns, positive fundamental change and growth.

With Japan overcoming deflation and ushering in a period of progress and consolidation despite market volatility and political upheaval, we expect Japanese companies to make strategic decisions in 2025 that attract global investors in larger numbers.

Our outlook for 2025 is relatively positive. We expect the business-friendly stance of the Republican Party, coupled with easier monetary policy, will be supportive for risk assets, particularly in the US market. While we hold various views, we rely on our strategic asset allocation to guide our long-term outlook—with healthy equities, short-dated credit, the US dollar and gold forming our backbone for the medium term.

We believe that investors should strive for a diversified global portfolio of quality companies that can thrive in an environment where the cost of capital may be higher than previously expected. Our collective experience of the pandemic reminds us that such an approach is a good idea.

We increased the overweight to growth assets given that economic data remains resilient against falling inflation and as global central banks lower interest rates. Regarding defensive assets, we have been relatively negative on sovereign bonds, and despite the rate-cutting cycle underway, we maintain this view.

During the first Trump presidency, China outperformed the S&P 500 and all the perceived beneficiaries of "China Plus One". While history may not be repeated, it is clear that China's domestic policy and market environment will become significant factors during Trump's second presidency.