Insights

Investment Insights by our experts and thought leaders

Our View on the Crucial Chinese Property Market

Given the significant proportion of real estate investment as a percentage of GDP, as well as the proportion of local government revenue generated from land sales, the property market remains a crucial driver of the Chinese economy.

The New Governance Code – What impact will it have on Japanese companies?

Due to the developments described in this article, there is ample room for growth at Japanese firms and much opportunity for investment success.

Triffin Revisited: Why the Unwinding of the Dilemma Matters

There is a well-known dilemma that exists for the country that “owns” or operates the global reserve currency. Since global trade and many capital account transactions are settled in the reserve currency, it is incumbent on the economy that provides the reserve currency to ensure that it is a net exporter of its currency so as to accommodate global growth and hence the growing need for reserves and international settlement funds ...

Japan's Successful “Show Me the Money” Corporate Governance

John Vail updates his long-standing theme: Japan's Successful “Show Me the Money” Corporate Governance.

The ECB's Gamble

World trade prices are currently falling at probably their fastest pace since the dark days of the Global Financial Crisis and, in doing so, they are imparting a deflationary bias to the world economy. We find that even in some of the world's strongest economies ...

European Property: Does it Signal Global Deflation?

Through 2014, one of the largest asset classes in the world was virtually unnoticed as an indicator that Europe is not pushing the global economy into widespread deflation.

Will European QE deliver on Earnings expectations?

There are several credible reasons to expect that QE will boost corporate earnings in Europe, though by not as much as in the US. However the risk of disappointment relative to inflated expectations remains high.

Will deflation or inflation be the global focus for 2015?

In 2015, markets will be looking for any pick up in European and Japanese inflation as a result of their QE programmes. With growth picking up, we may start to see signs of a rise in US inflation.

Economic Disappointment in Japan? Key points to remember (again)

The disappointing economic data should not worry investors in Japanese risk assets very much at all.

Australia: Japanese and European QE likely to subdue bond yields and increase currency market tensions in 2015

The key theme of the past few years has been quantitative easing. Although the US has come to the end of its version of this experiment, QE programmes have begun or are about to begin in Japan and Europe.

Preparing for the Next Phase of Global Evolution: More People and Bigger Cities

Preparing for the Next Phase of Global Evolution: More People and Bigger Cities

We expect the next phase of the global evolution to be driven by a growing global population, rapid urbanisation and for most of it to happen in emerging markets with increasing focus on "green" development.

What will happen to US Treasuries if Japanese government bond yields go to zero?

In a pre-GFC and pre-QE world, zero or negative interest rates on a German, Japanese or US 10-year bond would have been considered highly implausible. However...

Implications of the ECB's quantitative easing program for interest rates and currencies

ECB's QE: The major question is, will this program work given the European model of debt creation is via the banking system and not the bond markets?

Steel and Iron Ore Deflation to Continue

The steel industry and its underlying iron ore industry are witnessing excess production and deflationary forces that are similar to the global energy markets.

Has The European Central Bank Saved the World?

The all-important question as to whether the ECB's actions last month will have been sufficient to reflate Eurozone inflation expectations boils down to the simple question of whether the EUR1 trillion headline number is a big enough statement on its own...

ECB Success but with Caveats

The QE announcement was a major step forward for Eurozone. It is not without dangers and questions about implementation, however, so markets should not get over-enthusiastic about it.

BOJ Indicates a Move Towards "True Core CPI" More Globally

Now that oil prices have declined, if a central bank targets its overall CPI at 2.0% for 2015, it would likely be labeled as being overly aggressive and perhaps attempting to unfairly weaken its currency.

Will China Provide Global Liquidity Soon?

As the Fed continues to unwind its stimulus, even amidst threats of global deflation, there are hopes that China will accelerate the liberalization of its capital account and take over the Fed's role as the global supplier of liquidity.

Reasons for an Oil Price Rebound

We expect oil prices to rebound and for the time being, we will stick with our call for Brent to rebound to $72 by end-June 2015, although $65 is a more plausible goal.

NZ market insights - Farmgate Milk Price Update

Supply-side shocks and market distortions have created a degree of uncertainty over the short to medium-term outlook for the New Zealand dairy industry.