Insights

Investment Insights by our experts and thought leaders

FOMC: projections highlight heightened uncertainty in rate outlook

The Fed maintained interest rates at its June meeting, signalling a slightly more positive economic outlook. Despite easing of some risks, uncertainties remain elevated, with inflation still a key concern. FOMC members' varied rate projections reflect heightened uncertainty in the economic outlook.
Andrew Hunt

Exceptionalism, Goldilocks, TACO and FOMO

One hundred and fifty-three quarters have passed since the rather “political” Alan Greenspan was appointed the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. According to our Demand Pressure Index, which seeks to provide a better estimate of the output gap in the economy, the economy has been run “hot” with positive demand pressure (i.e. demand exceeded sustainable supply) in ninety-nine of those post 1986 quarters.

New Zealand Equity Monthly (May 2025)

New Zealand’s climate-related disclosures regime came into effect for reporting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2023 and the first rounds of annual reports were released in 2024. Now that the second year of reporting is underway, we share some of the benefits and challenges we have found in the reporting process.

New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly (May 2025)

The RBNZ's interest rate cut in May was viewed as a hawkish reduction, with the central bank seen moving closer to the point at which it will consider pausing the cycle to observe the benefits the current monetary policy settings can bring to the economy.

Harnessing Change-Monthly Insights: Asian Equity (May 2025)

Markets, while volatile, have continued to recover, and we are now seeing an easing of trade tensions. However, in these uncertain times, one thing remains clear—uncertainty itself. The situation remains fluid, and against such a background we expect Chinese policy support to stimulate consumption and business activities.

Japan plays the long game to keep structural recovery intact

Japanese equities have not been immune to tariff worries. However, it is worth remembering that Japan is playing the long game: the country is undergoing structural reflation driven by factors unlikely to be reversed by market volatility or bad news on US trade.

Navigating Japan Equities: Monthly Insights From Tokyo (June 2025)

We discuss how growing calls to reduce Japan's consumption tax rate provide a chance to focus on how consumption can be stimulated, potentially triggering a secular change in spending behaviour; we also assess the recent surge in super-long JGB yields and its possible implications for monetary and fiscal policy.

Balancing Act Monthly Insights: Global Multi-Asset (May 2025)

In this month's Balancing Act we review Q1 corporate earnings, which have been more resilient than expected; from a defensive standpoint we also discuss our cautious view on gold.

On the ground in Asia-Monthly Insights: Asian Fixed Income (April 2025)

Against a more challenging but still benign macroeconomic backdrop, we expect Asian corporate and bank credit fundamentals to stay resilient, aside from a few sectors and specific credits which may be affected by tariff threats or geopolitical dynamics.

Trump’s first 100 days: a new economic regime takes shape

With a new economic regime potentially taking shape, we believe that now is an opportune time to consider an active global fixed income approach to navigate what is likely to be a prolonged period of uncertainty.

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