Insights

Investment Insights by our experts and thought leaders

Andrew Hunt

Exceptionalism, Goldilocks, TACO and FOMO

One hundred and fifty-three quarters have passed since the rather “political” Alan Greenspan was appointed the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. According to our Demand Pressure Index, which seeks to provide a better estimate of the output gap in the economy, the economy has been run “hot” with positive demand pressure (i.e. demand exceeded sustainable supply) in ninety-nine of those post 1986 quarters.

New Zealand Equity Monthly (May 2025)

New Zealand’s climate-related disclosures regime came into effect for reporting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2023 and the first rounds of annual reports were released in 2024. Now that the second year of reporting is underway, we share some of the benefits and challenges we have found in the reporting process.

New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly (May 2025)

The RBNZ's interest rate cut in May was viewed as a hawkish reduction, with the central bank seen moving closer to the point at which it will consider pausing the cycle to observe the benefits the current monetary policy settings can bring to the economy.

Harnessing Change-Monthly Insights: Asian Equity (May 2025)

Markets, while volatile, have continued to recover, and we are now seeing an easing of trade tensions. However, in these uncertain times, one thing remains clear—uncertainty itself. The situation remains fluid, and against such a background we expect Chinese policy support to stimulate consumption and business activities.

Japan plays the long game to keep structural recovery intact

Japanese equities have not been immune to tariff worries. However, it is worth remembering that Japan is playing the long game: the country is undergoing structural reflation driven by factors unlikely to be reversed by market volatility or bad news on US trade.

Navigating Japan Equities: Monthly Insights From Tokyo (June 2025)

We discuss how growing calls to reduce Japan's consumption tax rate provide a chance to focus on how consumption can be stimulated, potentially triggering a secular change in spending behaviour; we also assess the recent surge in super-long JGB yields and its possible implications for monetary and fiscal policy.

Balancing Act Monthly Insights: Global Multi-Asset (May 2025)

In this month's Balancing Act we review Q1 corporate earnings, which have been more resilient than expected; from a defensive standpoint we also discuss our cautious view on gold.

On the ground in Asia-Monthly Insights: Asian Fixed Income (April 2025)

Against a more challenging but still benign macroeconomic backdrop, we expect Asian corporate and bank credit fundamentals to stay resilient, aside from a few sectors and specific credits which may be affected by tariff threats or geopolitical dynamics.

Trump’s first 100 days: a new economic regime takes shape

With a new economic regime potentially taking shape, we believe that now is an opportune time to consider an active global fixed income approach to navigate what is likely to be a prolonged period of uncertainty.

Harnessing Change-Monthly Insights: Asian Equity (April 2025)

We can expect more aggressive policy support from Chinese authorities over the next several months for consumption and business activities, prompted by the still uncertain global trade situation. Despite the ongoing volatility and uncertainty surrounding US-China tariff policies, there are encouraging signs that the situation may improve.

We are all Bayesians now: why the US bond market is pivotal

Moody's downgrade of the US offers a chance to assess the relationship between the US administration and the bond market and examine the implications of persistent budget deficits, market reactions, trade tensions and policy decisions.

Global Equity Quarterly (Q1 2025)

We firmly believe that markets remain inefficient, and the last few months are testament to that. Hence we face today's uncertainty level headed, attentive to where risks lie while also inquisitive about the potential opportunities.

Balancing Act: Global Multi-Asset Quarterly (Q1 2025)

Speculation over the actions of the US administration had a major impact on asset markets throughout the January-March quarter, with volatility dominating towards the end. We trimmed our overweight score in growth assets during the quarter, while we kept our view of defensive assets marginally positive.

New Zealand Equity Monthly (April 2025)

The upcoming New Zealand earnings reporting season is set against a backdrop of intricate global economic factors and trade tensions. Amidst the uncertainty, we assess New Zealand's exposure to the global trade tumult, highlighting potential challenges and supportive factors for the country's economy and companies.

New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly (April 2025)

In our view, New Zealand’s status as a safe haven during times of turbulence has often exceeded that of other markets. Although the New Zealand market is relatively small, it also offers a high degree of quality, and the country's bond and asset prices rarely see as much volatility as in the rest of the world.

Navigating Japan Equities: Monthly Insights From Tokyo (May 2025)

While the “tariff crisis” may have clouded Japan’s economic outlook, the prospects are certainly not opaque as it may look to reduce the role of US exports. Trade tensions have also prompted the Bank of Japan to hold monetary policy steady, but the central bank is still seen to be on course to hike interest rates in the longer term as it takes into account the continuous rise in domestic inflation.

Financing nature at scale

Nature-related risks and opportunities are rising fast on the global investment agenda. Yet for many investors, finding scalable, credible ways to finance biodiversity remains a challenge. Sovereign green bonds may offer one of the most effective channels to direct capital toward nature-positive outcomes—at scale, and with transparency.

Balancing Act Monthly Insights: Global Multi-Asset (April 2025)

One major “plotline” central to the recent series of tariff moves is the tense trade relationship between the US and China. In this issue, we will explore how Chinese bonds have historically offered defensive characteristics and their portfolio roles moving forward.
Andrew Hunt

Are Foreign Investors Really Fleeing US Assets?

Understandably much of the popular market commentary has centred around the possible “Repatriation Trade” and in particular is has focussed on possible flows out of the UST by foreign investors. There have also been stories of some selling of US equities and private credit instruments, all of which sound quite alarming given the USA’s hefty net Foreign Liabilities Position and reliance on foreign capital to cover its deficits.

Harnessing Change-Monthly Insights: Asian Equity (March 2025)

China’s focus on boosting domestic consumption as their top policy priority in 2025 sets a positive trajectory. The ability of individual countries to provide domestic stimulus is going to be crucial in limiting the impact of global growth slowdown brought on by US policy uncertainty.

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