SHARE THIS The beleaguered New Zealand bond market received some respite in May, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 2%, with the market pricing in the central bank hiking rates again in July and...
SHARE THIS Defined as negative growth for two consecutive quarters, a recession is certainly in the realm of possibilities (if not probable). However, it may be more a reflection of continued extreme economic volatility following the COVID-19 pandemic,...
SHARE THIS Inflationary pressures accelerated in May across the region, due to higher transport and food prices. We maintain our preference for Malaysian bonds, as we believe that inflation will be better contained in Malaysia compared to other...
SHARE THIS We are taking a more constructive view in duration overall, as we believe that the markets have largely priced in hawkish Fed expectations. Among the low-yielding countries, we prefer Singapore and Hong Kong, while we like Malaysia and India...
SHARE THIS Utilising and regenerating Japan’s ample forest resources by promoting a “wood cycle” could contribute to the creation of economic wealth and a net-zero carbon future.
SHARE THIS Inflationary pressures continued to remain elevated in July, as the headline CPI numbers in South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines increased, while those of Thailand and India moderated. During the month, the central banks of...
SHARE THIS We have little (in fact, virtually no) doubt that the opening salvos of the monetary response to the Pandemic were driven by a sense of panic rather than by calculated analysis. The Federal Reserve appeared to be downplaying internally as...
SHARE THIS Rather surprisingly, a UK tabloid newspaper recently contacted the author following the seemingly spectacular “blow up” in the UK bond markets, and the subsequent “crises” within the pension / insurance sectors. The journalist clearly wanted...
SHARE THIS Currently, there is a wide variety of predictions for the BOJ’s actions, with some expecting imminent hawkish decisions based upon some of Governor-nominee Kazuo Ueda’s “anti-distortion” comments, but changes are more likely to be gradual...
SHARE THIS Countries in the region took divergent monetary paths during the month. India and the Philippines raised their respective policy rates, while Indonesia and South Korea maintained their interest rates.
SHARE THIS Against a backdrop of a more stable bond market, we prefer relatively higher-yielding Philippine, India and Indonesian government bonds. In addition, there appears to be early signs suggesting that inflationary pressures in these countries...
SHARE THIS Market dynamics have changed quite considerably since mid-March after the regional bank failures in the US, which were quickly followed by turmoil at Credit Suisse leading to the bank’s forced marriage with UBS. The government response was...
SHARE THIS There was quite simply nothing not to like about the latest US consumer price index data; not only was the headline a good number but so too were most of the internals.
SHARE THIS Although the Bank of Japan tweaked its policy in July, we discuss why the move may have been a compromise given expectations the central bank will wait for more concrete signs of inflation before taking a more significant step; we also...
SHARE THIS This month we take a closer look at Japan’s 2Q GDP surge and analyse the factors that could offset a potential slowdown in exports; we also assess why the markets are less perturbed by a weak yen compared to a year ago and discuss the...
SHARE THIS Structural reforms, investments in energy transition, rising consumption and vast improvement in India’s infrastructure, productivity and manufacturing sector are expected to bolster the country’s next phase of economic growth and...
SHARE THIS Over the recent years, there has been a tendency amongst politicians and the media to target the CPI rather than inflation itself, or at least the inflation process. Too often have we heard from policymakers that inflation can be brought...
SHARE THIS This month we discuss the timing of Japan’s savings to investments push as assets held by households hit a record high; we also look at the rise in the domestic long-term yield to a 10-year peak and assess its potential impact on the equity...
SHARE THIS We expect 2024 to be a year of higher returns and lower volatility for Asian local government bonds as US Treasury yields are seen stabilising. We also see Asian currencies firming against the dollar in 2024 as the Federal Reserve’s rate...
SHARE THIS Considering that major tech companies are profitable, cash rich and cannot afford to lose out in the highly competitive AI race, spending on high-end computing and neural networks looks set to continue in 2024. This will likely create a...