SHARE THIS Although recent headline-grabbing events within the banking system have moved the topic of a potential credit crunch centre-stage in the markets’ consciousness, the fact is that a credit crunch within the Global Financial System began a year...
SHARE THIS Against a backdrop of a more stable bond market, we prefer relatively higher-yielding Philippine, India and Indonesian government bonds. In addition, there appears to be early signs suggesting that inflationary pressures in these countries...
SHARE THIS Market dynamics have changed quite considerably since mid-March after the regional bank failures in the US, which were quickly followed by turmoil at Credit Suisse leading to the bank’s forced marriage with UBS. The government response was...
SHARE THIS I think that it was Henry Kissinger that once said that "academic politics is so vicious because the stakes are so low". However, when academic politics affects economic policymaking, the stakes are far from low.
SHARE THIS Financials, healthcare and energy buck the trend and rise in a down market.
SHARE THIS This month we discuss how Warren Buffett’s focus on Japan has put the country’s market back on investor radars and how it could be a chance for companies to disseminate meaningful information; we also analyse the TSE’s surprise “name and...
SHARE THIS New Zealand’s equity market was surprisingly strong in the first four months of 2023 given the current challenges faced by the economy. The actual picture is more mixed, however, partly as a result of the concentrated nature of the New...
SHARE THIS As the exponential growth of machine learning kicks in, we believe that big technology companies with the first mover advantage in AI and high-end manufacturers of AI-focused hardware and microprocessors, notably Asian players, are in a...
SHARE THIS Currently, we believe that valuations look stretched (mainly in the US) and volatility too low to justify that a new bull market is at hand, given the plethora of risks. We remain constructive on China's recovering demand and new sources of...
SHARE THIS As New Zealand’s current tightening cycle started about 19 months ago, it can already be said to be mature. It also follows that the full impact of the monetary policy decisions taken so far should now be building in the economy.
SHARE THIS China’s re-opening and supportive policy tone may continue to provide a critical counterweight to global macro weakness. Macro and corporate credit fundamentals across Asia ex-China are also expected to stay robust.
SHARE THIS Asian REITs continue to be one of the fastest growing asset classes in the region, offering decent yields, a sustainable income stream and exposure to the region’s biggest landlords.
SHARE THIS Life is different in the post-pandemic world. Equity markets and economies are different too; geopolitics have deteriorated and barriers to trade have increased while the threat of global warming looms ever larger. In this short essay, we...
SHARE THIS The long-held theme of this report (since 2006) that profit margins remain on a structural uptrend, despite sluggish domestic GDP growth, still holds and domestic and international investors finally realise that Japanese corporations are...
SHARE THIS At times of stress, we believe that it makes sense for investors to reach for something that has recently provided comfort. Our view is that that is exactly what we have seen in Q1, as banking stock volatility has led investors back into the...
SHARE THIS This month we discuss the factors behind the Nikkei’s rise to a 33-year high; we also assess Japan’s opportunity to re-invent itself as a technology hub with leading global chipmakers bringing investments and manufacturing to its shores.
SHARE THIS As an undergraduate economist, the subject of foreign exchange reserves and reserve currencies garnered scant attention because we were in a world of floating currencies in which FX intervention, when it did occur, was only ever modest and...
SHARE THIS As the developed world continues to struggle with inflation and a lack of growth, Asia stands out as the bright spot, with inflation well in check and monetary cycles peaking ahead of the West. Growth in Asia is also expected to outperform...
SHARE THIS A recent trip to China offered first-hand observations of the country’s technological advancement, changing consumer patterns and new social norms as the world’s second largest economy moves on from the pandemic.
SHARE THIS The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to have the Official Cash Rate (OCR) peak at 5.5% surprised the market, which had started to price in a peak of 5.75% or 6.0%. The lower-than-expected peak in the OCR is positive for equities as...