Insights

Asian stocks declined in March, dragged down by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Lingering concerns over inflation also weighed on the equities markets. For the month, the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index fell by 2.8% in US dollar terms.

This month we discuss the Japanese stock market’s recovery from the initial shock of the Russia-Ukraine war; we also assess the potential impact of a Russian debt default on Japan’s markets and financial system.

The New Zealand bond market has experienced a rough start to 2022. The chief driving market factor has been the upward movement in reference interest rates, with the swap and government curves all moving up as central banks turn hawkish to fight inflation for the first time in a generation.

This month we focus on A-REITs, which are larger and more liquid relative to their New Zealand peers. One of the sector’s benefits over its New Zealand counterpart is its simple numerical advantage: Australia boasts 34 REITs, which is three times the number of REITs in New Zealand.

We share our thoughts on sustainable companies that address social issues and contribute to the physical and mental well-being of individuals.

The GIC expects the global economy to continue struggling in a form of “stagflation-lite” and sees a relatively flat performance for global equities for the next three to six months (although quite positive on Pacific equities), with moderate weakness for global bonds.

The economic costs of the current conflict in Ukraine may pale into insignificance in comparison to the human suffering, but they are not irrelevant to markets. The bottom line is of course that wars make society poorer, as does conflict in general, natural disasters, or catastrophic errors.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created significant uncertainty for investors. Prior to the war’s outbreak, central bankers were already facing a challenging inflationary environment, and these new commodity-driven price pressures are set to complicate matters even further.

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there has been considerable media coverage and interest about the implications this has on New Zealand investments. This invasion has seen devasting humanitarian effects. Our thoughts are with the people of Ukraine and those who have had family and friends affected by this crisis.

We are generally neutral to slightly cautious in our view of countries whose bonds are relatively more sensitive to UST movements. Within Asia currencies, we prefer the Chinese renminbi and Malaysian ringgit over the Indian rupee and the Philippine peso.