Multi-Asset

 

March 2017

Emerging Markets Quarterly - Recovery broadens but with policy risk still on the horizon

The Trump reflation trade may have lost some of its shine during the quarter, but any disappointment was more than overshadowed by strong global data as exports and production continued to gather pace. In fact, fading enthusiasm for Trump’s ability to execute has arguably served as a tailwind for Emerging Market (EM) assets in the form of a weaker dollar and moderating long term rates.


February 2017

Global Fixed Income & Credit Monthly Outlook

With President Trump announcing that he will be releasing his tax plans in the coming weeks, we have shifted to a more cautious position on US duration. The risk is that President Trump announces a sizeable stimulus package, with the backing of the broad Republican base. This would raise fears that the US Federal Reserve would need to act more quickly than expected, and with markets only pricing in two or three rate hikes in 2017, we believe that markets are under-pricing the risks of this announcement.


December 2016

Global Multi-Asset Market Outlook 2017

2016 may best be remembered as the year in which Trump won and the world changed. The question becomes which reforms will take centre stage.


November 2016

Balancing Act - Multi-Asset research views

Donald Trump has won and the world has changed. A real estate developer cum reality TV star will soon be the leader of the free world.


October 2016

Emerging Markets Quarterly - Better Fundamentals but still Risks in DM Policy

Emerging markets (EM) have endured strong adjustments in commodities and currencies that coupled with reforms makes a good case for better growth ahead. Still, it will take time for EM to navigate to more stable sources of growth, requiring relative stability through the delicate transition.

Balancing Act - Multi-Asset research views

As we enter the final quarter of 2016, concerns around political risk are at an uncomfortable level. October saw further volatility in the UK Pound, as negotiations around Brexit drove the currency to its lowest level in over 30 years.


September 2016

Balancing Act - Multi-Asset research views

Since the 2008 financial crisis, markets have become accustomed to central banks calling the shots. Investors eagerly await each central bank meeting in the hope some new form of monetary policy chicanery can help propel markets higher.


August 2016

Balancing Act - Multi-Asset research views

Another summer has passed in the northern hemisphere and any Brexit-related jitters appear a distant memory. Global equities have rallied almost 10% since the June lows, with most markets now in positive territory for the year.


July 2016

Balancing Act - Multi-Asset research views

We expect a raft of populist policies to appease the disaffected masses whose voice had not been given attention until Brexit. What is clear is that markets currently place the level of possible success at zero. Defensive trades are more crowded than ever.

Emerging Markets Quarterly - EM Assets Seeing Better Support

The UK's late June vote in favour of 'Brexit' was initially read as a deep negative, particularly given that markets were priced strongly in favour of a 'Remain' vote. However, after brief reflection, markets outside the region saw a rally, with risk asset performance more than making up for Brexit losses. Emerging markets have been a primary beneficiary...


June 2016

Balancing Act - Multi-Asset research views

We have been concerned for some time that the disillusioned middle class would eventually rail against the existing establishment and the set of policies they feel are responsible for leaving them behind. Brexit would appear to be more the start than the end of reconciling these differences.


May 2016

Balancing Act - Multi-Asset research views

We believe that the latest experimental monetary policy to do the rounds of central banking rhetoric—‘helicopter money’—may actually prove effective. But it comes with significant risks.


April 2016

Balancing Act - Multi-Asset research views

Not just a European phenomenon, the anti-establishment vote is gathering momentum globally. Donald Trump has surged to the Republican nomination in the US on the back of a groundswell of disillusioned middle class voters.


March 2016

Balancing Act - Multi-Asset research views

Success in investing can sometimes be as fleeting as the 1000-year old Japanese custom of 'Hanami' — the despair of January was quickly replaced by the euphoria of February and March. However, last year's winners have become this year's laggards.

Emerging Markets Quarterly - US Dollar Weakness Offers Relief

2016 began in complete panic, with risk assets including emerging markets selling off deeply through the first few weeks of the year. This was then followed by the strongest rally since 2012.


January 2016

Emerging Markets Quarterly - Macropolitical Risks Continue to Dominate

In early 2016, hedge fund Nevsky Capital decided to call it quits after 15 years of successful asset management. One of the reasons for the closure is that since the global financial crisis, emerging markets are breaking away from the transparent 'Washington Concensus' model.

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Nikko Asset Management New Zealand Limited
Level 9, Vero Centre
48 Shortland Street
Auckland 1010

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  • Tel: +64 9 307 6363
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