Evolving Markets

Investment Insights by our experts and thought leaders

Can the Rest of the World Live with the USA?

Currently, the US economy is stuttering. Headline growth during the latter half of 2023 was extremely rapid – GDP growth averaged more than twice the economy’s 20-year average - but this strong activity was led by the public sector, either directly through government investment or indirectly via the authorities’ support for household incomes.

Narratives and Liquidity: A Personal Journey

In my experience, there is nothing so powerful for asset markets as an “unquantifiable positive story and a tonne of liquidity”. Russell Napier’s Library of Mistakes in Edinburgh looks brilliantly at some of the madness that has taken hold of financial markets over the centuries (well worth a visit if you are ever nearby), and of course Edward Chancellor’s Devil take the Hindmost is the seminal text on the subject of credit-financed investment madness, but I have seen my fair share of mad booms firsthand.

Global macro outlook 2024

Much like this report in 2023, global conditions will remain unique and defy a confident overall summary; thus, here are ten predictions on some particularly noteworthy factors.

Repressed Inflation May Bubble to the Surface Next Year

Whether for year-end management reasons, or as a result of political considerations, it is a fact that the US Federal Reserve has allowed effective monetary conditions to ease over the last month. The public sector has injected more than $200 billion of liquidity into the financial system. It therefore comes as no surprise that financial markets are booming, yields are tumbling and the dollar is weak, a situation that we expect to continue into year end.

These Are Era-Defining Times

It has been a wild few weeks within debt markets – sharp sell-offs, even sharper rallies, and then a renewed sell off. Movements in equity markets have looked tame by comparison. Bond markets are certainly having to process a lot of conflicting information – inflation, deflation, politics and a mountain of potential issuance next year following what was an amazingly quiet year for debt issuance in 2023.

Oil Prices, Inflation, and Growth

Over the recent years, there has been a tendency amongst politicians and the media to target the CPI rather than inflation itself, or at least the inflation process. Too often have we heard from policymakers that inflation can be brought down through direct government subsidies or price controls. Subsidies may well have a justifiable social purpose, particularly during times of externalities such as wars but they have no role in controlling inflation. We have even heard that interest rates should not be increased “because they affect mortgage rates and mortgage costs are in the CPI”.

Asia: A Shortage of Dollars

The media is abuzz with stories about the demise of the US Dollar as a reserve currency and the rise of alternatives, such as the proposed new “BRICs” currency. From our perspective, we cannot think of a worse monetary idea than a pan-BRIC currency. It is difficult to conceive a less optimal currency area i.e. one worse than the Euro Area, which has certainly had (and continues to have) its problems.

Just Passing Through?

There was quite simply nothing not to like about the latest US consumer price index data; not only was the headline a good number but so too were most of the internals.

Do Interest Rates Matter that Much? Yes, and No…

One cannot turn on a financial news programme at present without hearing some talking-head or other discussing the outlook for interest rates, almost as though they are the only thing that matters to markets or the economy. We suspect that the matter to a degree to the latter, and much less to the former than is generally accepted.

The Demise of the Once Mighty US Dollar?

As an undergraduate economist, the subject of foreign exchange reserves and reserve currencies garnered scant attention because we were in a world of floating currencies in which FX intervention, when it did occur, was only ever modest and temporary. It was only in the mid-1980s, when a number of overtly mercantilist economies in Asia began linking their (frequently undervalued) currencies to the USD and acquiring specie that global reserves became a “topic”. During the 1990s, New Zealand operated without reserves.

The Federal Reserve: a Different Beast

I think that it was Henry Kissinger that once said that "academic politics is so vicious because the stakes are so low". However, when academic politics affects economic policymaking, the stakes are far from low.

The Credit Crunch; a Product of 2020 that Began Weeks Ago

Although recent headline-grabbing events within the banking system have moved the topic of a potential credit crunch centre-stage in the markets’ consciousness, the fact is that a credit crunch within the Global Financial System began a year ago, while that in the US domestic economy began late last year. More recently, Europe looks to have moved down the same path. Admittedly, the global situation did improve during December and early January, when global financial conditions eased for a variety of primarily technical reasons, but this has proved to have been only a false dawn.

Key Points: An Anaemic Recovery

Our Gravity Index for China has made only a very modest recovery so far this year.

Global Investment Committee’s Outlook

We expect fairly rough sailing for the global economy, financial system and markets in the next two quarters, but we do not expect disasters and there should be major relief for stocks later in 2023 as central banks begin to ease policy.

The Federal Reserve Scared of What it Can’t See?

A regular debate between the older and younger members of the Hunt-household revolves around whether old suspenseful Black-and-White horrors are actually more scary than vivid technicolour gore modern films. We suspect that for the Federal Reserve, what you can’t see in black and white may be the scarier concept…

Global Investment Committee’s Outlook

We don’t expect smooth sailing for the global economy and markets, but there should be great relief for both stocks and bonds in 2023, with pockets of strong outperformance due to idiosyncratic advantages. Notably, Europe and Developed Pacific-ex Japan should be overweighed for equites for the next six months, but Japan should perform the best by next December.

The Inelastic Supply Curve

We have little (in fact, virtually no) doubt that the opening salvos of the monetary response to the Pandemic were driven by a sense of panic rather than by calculated analysis. The Federal Reserve appeared to be downplaying internally as well as externally the impact of the Pandemic as late as on the 11th March 2020, but by lunch time on the 12th March it was in full crisis mode.

Despite fearmongering on demographics, Japan’s business has soared

Pundits need to be careful about scaring people regarding Japan and, thus, harming its economic future. This is especially true regarding recent high profile, wildly exaggerated tweets about demographics, a decades-old theme; clearly, this is a challenging theme, but Japan is certainly not going to disappear.

India: Reaping growth from change

Going back to India for a month after two long years of not being able to visit my family, I was pleasantly surprised by the new normal. While there has been much adversity, COVID-19 has also sparked positive change, especially on technology adoption.

Reaping big rewards in Asian small caps

Grace Yan, a Senior Portfolio Manager and a member of the Nikko AM Asian Equity Team, talks about the underlying reasons behind her recent success in winning Citywire Asia’s Best Fund Manager award and her passion about uncovering hidden gems in the Asian small-cap equity arena.