Andrew Hunt Commentary

Almost forty years ago, China’s then paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping, decided that his country needed a “Great Leap Forward” in order to catch up with its economic rivals and secure its then fading place within the global system.

We have been saying for some time that inflationary pressures within the global goods markets may have peaked (at least for now) and that the global economy is slowing rapidly on the back of what are now very weak real incomes, collapsing monetary growth, and China’s sharp economic downturn (the causes of which run far beyond the country’s zero-COVID strategy).

As it often is when Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party wins an election by an impressive amount, the initial equity market reaction was positive. But the ramifications of the ruling party’s upper house election victory will in the intermediate term be a function of what happens to the global economy and geopolitics in the months and quarters ahead.

Last month’s ever austere Bundesbank Monthly Report contained an essay on Pension Reform in Germany. The article is quite long but suggests that the German Pension system only has two long term options to maintain its solvency: either accept that the purchasing power of pensioners is set to fall; or the retirement age will need to rise to 69 or higher by the year 2070. Either pensioners will have to accept less in the future in real terms or work longer – the choice seems stark.

“Stagflation-lite” coupled with a severe geopolitical crisis was much worse for equities than we expected, but most of the bad news is priced in, so the prospect for global economies and equities in aggregate should improve. While we expect global GDP to moderately underperform consensus, it should skirt recession and positively surprise equity markets, which increasingly have priced in recessionary conditions.

Since the Pandemic first unfolded, it has generally paid to invest and act according to what the Federal Reserve Chairman said was going to happen, rather than what did in fact happen. The obvious example being last year, when the Fed told markets not to worry about inflation even though the central bank clearly should have been worried about rising inflation rates…..

The rise that has occurred within longer term bond yields over recent weeks has certainly been “enthusiastic”, and we suspect that many view the move as being no more than a belated / overdue reaction to the higher rates of inflation within the global system.

The GIC expects the global economy to continue struggling in a form of “stagflation-lite” and sees a relatively flat performance for global equities for the next three to six months (although quite positive on Pacific equities), with moderate weakness for global bonds.

The economic costs of the current conflict in Ukraine may pale into insignificance in comparison to the human suffering, but they are not irrelevant to markets. The bottom line is of course that wars make society poorer, as does conflict in general, natural disasters, or catastrophic errors.

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there has been considerable media coverage and interest about the implications this has on New Zealand investments. This invasion has seen devasting humanitarian effects. Our thoughts are with the people of Ukraine and those who have had family and friends affected by this crisis.